Impacts of Bad ESP (Early Size Predictions) on Software Effort Estimation

Context: Early size predictions (ESP) can lead to errors in effort predictions for software projects. This problem is particular acute in parametric effort models that give extra weight to size factors (for example, the COCOMO model assumes that effort is exponentially proportional to project size). Objective: To test if effort estimates are crippled by bad ESP. Method: Document inaccuracies in early size estimates. Use those error sizes to determine the implications of those inaccuracies via a Monte Carlo perturbation analysis of effort models and an analysis of the equations used in those effort models. Results: While many projects have errors in ESP of up to +/- 100%, those errors add very little to the overall effort estimate error. Specifically, we find no statistically significant difference in the estimation errors seen after increasing ESP errors from 0 to +/- 100%. An analysis of effort estimation models explains why this is so: the net additional impact of ESP error is relatively small compared to the other sources of error associated with in estimation models. Conclusion: ESP errors effect effort estimates by a relatively minor amount. As soon as a model uses a size estimate and other factors to predict project effort, then ESP errors are not crippling to the process of estimation