Discriminative Data-driven Self-adaptive Fraud Control Decision System with Incomplete Information

While E-commerce has been growing explosively and online shopping has become popular and even dominant in the present era, online transaction fraud control has drawn considerable attention in business practice and academic research. Conventional fraud control considers mainly the interactions of two major involved decision parties, i.e. merchants and fraudsters, to make fraud classification decision without paying much attention to dynamic looping effect arose from the decisions made by other profit-related parties. This paper proposes a novel fraud control framework that can quantify interactive effects of decisions made by different parties and can adjust fraud control strategies using data analytics, artificial intelligence, and dynamic optimization techniques. Three control models, Naive, Myopic and Prospective Controls, were developed based on the availability of data attributes and levels of label maturity. The proposed models are purely data-driven and self-adaptive in a real-time manner. The field test on Microsoft real online transaction data suggested that new systems could sizably improve the company's profit.