Alternative Techniques for Mapping Paths to HLAI

The only systematic mapping of the HLAI technical landscape was conducted at a workshop in 2009 [Adams et al., 2012]. However, the results from it were not what organizers had hoped for [Goertzel 2014, 2016], merely just a series of milestones, up to 50% of which could be argued to have been completed already. We consider two more recent articles outlining paths to human-like intelligence [Mikolov et al., 2016; Lake et al., 2017]. These offer technical and more refined assessments of the requirements for HLAI rather than just milestones. While useful, they also have limitations. To address these limitations we propose the use of alternative techniques for an updated systematic mapping of the paths to HLAI. The newly proposed alternative techniques can model complex paths of future technologies using intricate directed graphs. Specifically, there are two classes of alternative techniques that we consider: scenario mapping methods and techniques for eliciting expert opinion through digital platforms and crowdsourcing. We assess the viability and utility of both the previous and alternative techniques, finding that the proposed alternative techniques could be very beneficial in advancing the existing body of knowledge on the plausible frameworks for creating HLAI. In conclusion, we encourage discussion and debate to initiate efforts to use these proposed techniques for mapping paths to HLAI.