Positive Almost-Sure Termination -- Complexity and Proof Rules

We study the recursion-theoretic complexity of Positive Almost-Sure Termination ($\mathsf{PAST}$) in an imperative programming language with rational variables, bounded nondeterministic choice, and discrete probabilistic choice. A program terminates positive almost-surely if, for every scheduler, the program terminates almost-surely and the expected runtime to termination is finite. We show that $\mathsf{PAST}$ for our language is complete for the (lightface) co-analytic sets ($Π^1_1$-complete). This is in contrast to the related notions of Almost-Sure Termination ($\mathsf{AST}$) and Bounded Termination ($\mathsf{BAST}$), both of which are arithmetical ($Π^0_2$ and $Σ^0_2$ complete respectively). Our upper bound implies an effective procedure to reduce reasoning about probabilistic termination to non-probabilistic fair termination in a model with bounded nondeterminism, and to simple program termination in models with unbounded nondeterminism. Our lower bound shows the opposite: for every program with unbounded nondeterministic choice, there is an effectively computable probabilistic program with bounded choice such that the original program is terminating $iff$ the transformed program is $\mathsf{PAST}$. We show that every program has an effectively computable normal form, in which each probabilistic choice either continues or terminates execution immediately, each with probability $1/2$. For normal form programs, we provide a sound and complete proof rule for $\mathsf{PAST}$. Our proof rule uses transfinite ordinals. We show that reasoning about $\mathsf{PAST}$ requires transfinite ordinals up to $ω^{CK}_1$; thus, existing techniques for probabilistic termination based on ranking supermartingales that map program states to reals do not suffice to reason about $\mathsf{PAST}$.