Evaluating the Security of Merkle Trees in the Internet of Things: An Analysis of Data Falsification Probabilities

Addressing the critical challenge of ensuring data integrity in decentralized systems, this paper delves into the underexplored area of data falsification probabilities within Merkle Trees, which are pivotal in blockchain and Internet of Things (IoT) technologies. Despite their widespread use, a comprehensive understanding of the probabilistic aspects of data security in these structures remains a gap in current research. Our study aims to bridge this gap by developing a theoretical framework to calculate the probability of data falsification, taking into account various scenarios based on the length of the Merkle path and hash length. The research progresses from the derivation of an exact formula for falsification probability to an approximation suitable for cases with significantly large hash lengths. Empirical experiments validate the theoretical models, exploring simulations with diverse hash lengths and Merkle path lengths. The findings reveal a decrease in falsification probability with increasing hash length and an inverse relationship with longer Merkle paths. A numerical analysis quantifies the discrepancy between exact and approximate probabilities, underscoring the conditions for the effective application of the approximation. This work offers crucial insights into optimizing Merkle Tree structures for bolstering security in blockchain and IoT systems, achieving a balance between computational efficiency and data integrity.