Deduction of the Bromilow's time-cost model from the fractal nature of activity networks

August 27, 2024 Β· Declared Dead Β· πŸ› arXiv.org

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Authors Alexei Vazquez arXiv ID 2409.00110 Category physics.soc-ph Cross-listed cs.SI Citations 0 Venue arXiv.org Last Checked 4 months ago
Abstract
In 1969 Bromilow observed that the time $T$ to execute a construction project follows a power law scaling with the project cost $C$, $T\sim C^B$ [Bromilow 1969]. While the Bromilow's time-cost model has been extensively tested using data for different countries and project types, there is no theoretical explanation for the algebraic scaling. Here I mathematically deduce the Bromilow's time-cost model from the fractal nature of activity networks. The Bromislow's exponent is $B=1-Ξ±$, where $1-Ξ±$ is the scaling exponent between the number of activities in the critical path $L$ and the number of activities $N$, $L\sim N^{1-Ξ±}$ with $0\leqΞ±<1$ [Vazquez et al 2023]. I provide empirical data showing that projects with low serial/parallel (SP)% have lower $B$ values than those with higher SP%. I conclude that the Bromilow's time-cost model is a law of activity networks, the Bromilow's exponent is a network property and forecasting project duration from cost should be limited to projects with high SP%.
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