Sampling and counting triangle-free graphs near the critical density

We study the following combinatorial counting and sampling problems: can we efficiently sample from the Erdős-Rényi random graph $G(n,p)$ conditioned on triangle-freeness? Can we efficiently approximate the probability that $G(n,p)$ is triangle-free? These are prototypical instances of forbidden substructure problems ubiquitous in combinatorics. The algorithmic questions are instances of approximate counting and sampling for a hypergraph hard-core model. Estimating the probability that $G(n,p)$ has no triangles is a fundamental question in probabilistic combinatorics and one that has led to the development of many important tools in the field. Through the work of several authors, the asymptotics of the logarithm of this probability are known if $p =o( n^{-1/2})$ or if $p =ω( n^{-1/2})$. The regime $p = Θ(n^{-1/2})$ is more mysterious, as this range witnesses a dramatic change in the the typical structural properties of $G(n,p)$ conditioned on triangle-freeness. As we show, this change in structure has a profound impact on the performance of sampling algorithms. We give two different efficient sampling algorithms for triangle-free graphs (and complementary algorithms to approximate the triangle-freeness large deviation probability), one that is efficient when $p < c/\sqrt{n}$ and one that is efficient when $p > C/\sqrt{n}$ for constants $c, C>0$. The latter algorithm involves a new approach for dealing with large defects in the setting of sampling from low-temperature spin models.