Fundamental Limits of Matrix Sensing: Exact Asymptotics, Universality, and Applications

In the matrix sensing problem, one wishes to reconstruct a matrix from (possibly noisy) observations of its linear projections along given directions. We consider this model in the high-dimensional limit: while previous works on this model primarily focused on the recovery of low-rank matrices, we consider in this work more general classes of structured signal matrices with potentially large rank, e.g. a product of two matrices of sizes proportional to the dimension. We provide rigorous asymptotic equations characterizing the Bayes-optimal learning performance from a number of samples which is proportional to the number of entries in the matrix. Our proof is composed of three key ingredients: $(i)$ we prove universality properties to handle structured sensing matrices, related to the ''Gaussian equivalence'' phenomenon in statistical learning, $(ii)$ we provide a sharp characterization of Bayes-optimal learning in generalized linear models with Gaussian data and structured matrix priors, generalizing previously studied settings, and $(iii)$ we leverage previous works on the problem of matrix denoising. The generality of our results allow for a variety of applications: notably, we mathematically establish predictions obtained via non-rigorous methods from statistical physics in [ETB+24] regarding Bilinear Sequence Regression, a benchmark model for learning from sequences of tokens, and in [MTM+24] on Bayes-optimal learning in neural networks with quadratic activation function, and width proportional to the dimension.