Resilience and Volatility in Academic Publishing, The Case of the University of Maribor 2004-2023

This article investigates the dynamics of academic publishing resilience and volatility at Slovenia's University of Maribor (UM) from 2004 to 2023. This period was marked by significant economic pressures and policy shifts, including changes to higher education legislation and university funding. Using UM's employment data and OpenAlex publication records, the study examines the relationship between employed researcher numbers and unique authors publishing under the UM affiliation. Despite a substantial decrease in researcher employment during the 2009-2013 economic recession and austerity phase, the number of unique authors publishing with UM affiliation surprisingly increased. This growth was driven by factors such as a shift towards project-based funding, contributions from an expanding doctoral student cohort, and increased international collaborations. Analysis of author turnover reveals a notable contrast: high short-term volatility (annual churn rates of ~40-50%) versus significant mid-term stability (5-year churn rates of ~8-10%). Survival analysis confirms this trend, showing high initial attrition among publishing authors but long-term persistence for a core group. Furthermore, co-authorship network analysis indicates the UM research network has become more resilient over time. A critical finding is a fundamental shift in network structure around 2016, transitioning from dissassortative to assortative mixing, signaling profound changes in collaboration dynamics. The findings carry implications for research policy and university management, highlighting the necessity of balancing short-term performance indicators with the long-term stability and resilience essential for a thriving research community.