Network Unreliability in Almost-Linear Time

The network unreliability problem asks for the probability that a given undirected graph gets disconnected when every edge independently fails with a given probability $p$. Valiant (1979) showed that this problem is \#P-hard; therefore, the best we can hope for are approximation algorithms. In a classic result, Karger (1995) obtained the first FPTAS for this problem by leveraging the fact that when a graph disconnects, it almost always does so at a near-minimum cut, and there are only a small (polynomial) number of near-minimum cuts. Since then, a series of results have obtained progressively faster algorithms to the current bound of $m^{1+o(1)} + \tilde{O}(n^{3/2})$ (Cen, He, Li, and Panigrahi, 2024). In this paper, we obtain an $m^{1+o(1)}$-time algorithm for the network unreliability problem. This is essentially optimal, since we need $O(m)$ time to read the input graph. Our main new ingredient is relating network unreliability to an {\em ideal} tree packing of spanning trees (Thorup, 2001).