Revisiting Deepfake Detection: Chronological Continual Learning and the Limits of Generalization

The rapid evolution of deepfake generation technologies poses critical challenges for detection systems, as non-continual learning methods demand frequent and expensive retraining. We reframe deepfake detection (DFD) as a Continual Learning (CL) problem, proposing an efficient framework that incrementally adapts to emerging visual manipulation techniques while retaining knowledge of past generators. Our framework, unlike prior approaches that rely on unreal simulation sequences, simulates the real-world chronological evolution of deepfake technologies in extended periods across 7 years. Simultaneously, our framework builds upon lightweight visual backbones to allow for the real-time performance of DFD systems. Additionally, we contribute two novel metrics: Continual AUC (C-AUC) for historical performance and Forward Transfer AUC (FWT-AUC) for future generalization. Through extensive experimentation (over 600 simulations), we empirically demonstrate that while efficient adaptation (+155 times faster than full retraining) and robust retention of historical knowledge is possible, the generalization of current approaches to future generators without additional training remains near-random (FWT-AUC $\approx$ 0.5) due to the unique imprint characterizing each existing generator. Such observations are the foundation of our newly proposed Non-Universal Deepfake Distribution Hypothesis. \textbf{Code will be released upon acceptance.}