Community Engagement and the Lifespan of Open-Source Software Projects

Open-source software (OSS) projects depend on community engagement (CE) for longevity. However, CE's quantifiable impact on project dynamics and lifespan is underexplored. Objectives: This study defines CE in OSS, identifies key metrics, and evaluates their influence on project dynamics (releases, commits, branches) and lifespan. Methods: We analyzed 33,946 GitHub repositories, defining and operationalizing CE with validated per-month metrics (issues, comments, watchers, stargazers). Non-parametric tests and correlations assessed relationships with project dynamics and lifespan across quartiles. Results: CE metrics significantly associate with project dynamics, with stronger correlations in highly engaged projects. For lifespan, a complex pattern emerged: per-month CE rates are highest in younger projects, declining with age. Yet, a subset of long-lived projects maintains exceptionally high activity. Initial CE bursts appear crucial for establishment, while sustained high engagement drives extreme longevity. Active issue engagement's influence intensifies with age, but passive attention's declines. Conclusion: CE dynamically drives OSS project longevity and development. Our findings establish validated CE metrics and offer deeper insights into how diverse community activity patterns contribute to project longevity.