Exploring the Role of Theory of Mind in Human Decision Making: Cognitive, Spatial, and Emotional Influences in the Adversarial Rock-Paper-Scissors Game

Understanding how humans attribute beliefs, goals, and intentions to others, known as theory of mind (ToM), is critical in the context of human-computer interaction. Despite various metrics used to assess ToM, the interplay between cognitive, spatial, and emotional factors in influencing human decision making during adversarial interactions remains underexplored. This paper investigates these relationships using the Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) game as a testbed. Through established ToM tests, we analyze how cognitive reasoning, spatial awareness, and emotional perceptiveness affect human performance when interacting with bots and human opponents in repeated RPS settings. Our findings reveal significant correlations among certain ToM metrics and highlight humans' ability to detect patterns in opponents' actions. However, most individual ToM metrics proved insufficient for predicting performance variations, with recursive thinking being the only metric moderately associated with decision effectiveness. Through exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modeling (SEM), we identified two latent factors influencing decision effectiveness: Factor 1, characterized by recursive thinking, emotional perceptiveness, and spatial reasoning, positively affects decision-making against dynamic bots and human players, while Factor 2, linked to interpersonal skills and rational ability, has a negative impact. These insights lay the groundwork for further research on ToM metrics and for designing more intuitive, adaptive systems that better anticipate and adapt to human behavior, ultimately enhancing human-machine collaboration.