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The Ethereal
Once-for-All: Scalable Simultaneous Forecasting via Equilibrium State Estimation
June 11, 2026 ยท Grace Period ยท ๐ ICML 2026
Authors
Beinan Xu, Andy Song, Jiti Gao, Feng Liu
arXiv ID
2606.13285
Category
cs.LG: Machine Learning
Cross-listed
cs.AI
Citations
0
Venue
ICML 2026
Abstract
We introduce Equilibrium State Estimation (ESE), a novel paradigm for simultaneous prediction, where multiple interacting systems require separate yet coordinated forecasts. Such scenarios often arise in real-world settings such as economics and healthcare modeling. Unlike existing approaches that predict one system at a time, ESE forecasts all systems in a single pass. It first estimates the equilibrium state across systems, then generates holistic forecasts based on the difference between the current state and the estimated equilibrium. Extensive experiments on synthetic and real-world datasets, including currency exchange and COVID-19 spread modeling, demonstrate that ESE is at least as accurate as state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods while being significantly faster. In addition, ESE integrates seamlessly with conventional predictors, combining their accuracy with its exceptional efficiency and delivering a 10-70x speedup. With linear-time complexity, ESE scales far better than SOTA methods as the number of systems increases. Moreover, it remains accurate under diverse perturbations, establishing ESE as a fast, generalizable, robust, and scalable multi-prediction method.
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